FalkirkvsDundee

Falkirk host Dundee at Falkirk Community Stadium in round eight of the Scottish Premiership. Falkirk's numbers come from a completed 2025-2026 season in which they finished sixth; Dundee's come from five matches of this campaign, sitting fourth on seven points. The model makes Dundee the most likely winner at 43%.

Falkirk finished sixth last season with 46 points from 33 matches — 13 wins, seven draws, 13 defeats — scoring 45 and conceding 48. That is 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game, ranking seventh of 12 for attack and eighth for defence. Their last five read DWDLL at 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, with closing table form of LLLWL.

Dundee have seven points from five matches this season — 2W 1D 2L — with six scored and four conceded, or 1.2 and 0.8 per game. Those rates rank tenth of 12 for attack and ninth for defence. Their last five read WLDLW at 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. Five matches is a thin base for projection.

Only three meetings are on record, and Falkirk have won two of them, Dundee one, with no draws. The aggregate stands 3-2 to Falkirk, 1.67 goals per meeting, and two of the three produced two goals or fewer. The sample is too small to lean on heavily.

Falkirk's last 20 home matches: 8W 3D 9L, a 40% win rate close to their overall 39.4%, though home games have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.65 conceded against 1.36 and 1.45 overall. Dundee's last 20 away matches: 3W 3D 14L, a 15% win rate with 0.65 scored and 1.85 conceded, well below their current-season figures.

Both sides last played on 2026-09-19 and arrive after the same 21-day break, so there is no rest differential. Falkirk's four recent fixtures came against opponents averaging rank 3.3, Dundee's against 4.3 — a tougher recent slate for the hosts. Dundee's league position rests on five matches; Falkirk's underlying figures cover a full season.

The Poisson model gives Dundee 43%, the draw 29.1% and Falkirk 27.9%, naming a Dundee win as the most likely outcome at high confidence. The projected score is 0-1, from expected values of 0.93 and 1.22 goals; the most likely scorelines are 0-1 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (11.6%). It expects about 2.15 goals in total, with a 63.3% chance of two or more and a 42.7% chance each side scores at least once. The largest of the decisive margins is a one-goal away win at 24%.

The weight of the data points to a narrow Dundee win, but not a comfortable one: the draw at 29.1% sits above Falkirk's 27.9%, and Dundee's away record of three wins in 20 is the clear counterweight. Falkirk's 1.55 goals per home game is the main reason to doubt the projection. A one-goal margin in either direction covers 42.2% of the model's distribution.