Liverpool2-2Nottingham Forest

This is the second round of the Premier League season, with Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest at Anfield. The table figures below are from the 2025-2026 campaign, since the new season has only just begun. Liverpool finished fifth last season with 60 points; Forest finished 16th with 44. The model makes Liverpool the most likely winner, at 52.9%.

Liverpool's 2025-2026 season yielded 17 wins and 60 points, with an attack ranked fourth in the division and a defence ranked 13th. Their last five competitive matches read DDLLW, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. They last played on 23 August, six days before this fixture.

Nottingham Forest finished 16th last season with 44 points, scoring 1.26 goals per game and conceding 1.34. Their last five matches read LWWLL, averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per outing. Forest's most recent match was on 22 August, seven days before kick-off.

Four meetings between the sides are on record. Liverpool have won one, drawn one, and lost two; Forest have won two and drawn one. Those matches produced just seven goals in total, and three of the four had two or fewer goals. In the two Anfield meetings, Forest won both, 3-0 and 1-0.

At home in their last 20 matches, Liverpool have a 45% win rate, averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Forest's last 20 away games show an 8-1-11 record, with a 40% win rate and 1.45 goals scored per game. Liverpool score more at home than overall, while Forest concede more on the road than at home.

Liverpool have had six days of rest, Forest seven, so neither side has a meaningful fatigue disadvantage. Schedule strength is comparable: Liverpool's recent opponents averaged rank 13, Forest's one recent opponent rank 14. With the table data coming from last season, early-season projections carry additional uncertainty.

The model, rated high confidence, puts Liverpool's win probability at 52.9%, the draw at 22.4%, and an away win at 24.7%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, and 1-1 is also the single most likely exact score at 10.2%; however, the combined probability of a Liverpool win exceeds any other result. Total goals are projected at about 3.13, with an 81.9% chance of at least two and a 60.2% chance both teams score. The leading margin is a home win by two or more (30.2%), ahead of a one-goal home win (22.6%) and the draw (22.4%).

The data collectively points to a Liverpool win, though the projected 1-1 scoreline suggests a close match. Forest's two wins in two Anfield visits are a note of caution, but the model assigns high confidence to the home side. The main risk to the projection is Liverpool's recent defensive form, which has seen them concede 1.8 goals per game over their last five matches.