Lecce0-4Roma

This Serie A round 2 meeting pits last season's 17th-place side against the third-place club. Based on 2025-26 numbers, Roma are the clear favorites: the model gives them a 60% win probability, with Lecce at 13.2% and the draw at 26.8%. The visitors won all four previous meetings.

Lecce finished 2025-26 with 38 points from 38 matches (10W, 8D, 20L), scoring just 0.74 goals per game — the fourth-worst attack in the division. Their defense was mid-table, conceding 1.32 per game. In their last five outings they went WLWWL, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded.

Roma ended last season in third place with 73 points (23W, 4D, 11L) and the league's second-best defense (0.82 conceded per game). Their recent five matches read WDLWL, with 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. On the road they won 8 of their last 20, losing 10.

The four meetings on record are all Roma wins, with an aggregate of 8-1. Three of those four games produced two goals or fewer, including a 1-0 Roma win in March 2026 and a 2-0 win at Lecce in January 2026. Lecce have never taken a point from this fixture.

Lecce's home record over their last 20 at the Via del Mare is 7W, 5D, 8L, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. Roma's away form is more volatile: 8W, 2D, 10L in their last 20, scoring 1.45 and conceding 1.5 per game. That means Roma's away defense is markedly weaker than their overall numbers.

Neither side faces a congested schedule: Lecce have had 8 days of rest, Roma 7. Roma's schedule-strength sample is limited to one fixture, so it offers little guidance. The prominent factor is Roma's historical grip on this fixture combined with Lecce's low scoring output.

The Poisson model projects a 0-1 Roma win, with an expected scoreline of 0.52 to 1.44. The overall win probability is 60% for Roma, 26.8% for a draw, and 13.2% for Lecce. The model expects about 1.96 total goals, with a 58.2% chance of at least two goals, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 (20.3%), 0-2 (14.6%), and 0-0 (14.1%). Roma winning by exactly one goal is projected at 28.9%, and by two or more at 31.1%.

The data strongly favors an away win, with the model expressing high confidence. Roma's superior attack and defense, plus a perfect head-to-head record, point to a narrow victory. The main caveat is Roma's away form, which has included 10 losses in 20 games — so an upset, while unlikely, is not impossible.