ComovsRoma

This fixture in Serie A Round 6 features Como and Roma. Coming from the previous season's table data, Como (rank 4) scored 1.71 goals per game, while Roma (rank 3) managed 1.55 per game. The model projects a Como win at 44.5%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 and a combined goals total around 2.02.

In the 2025-2026 season, Como earned 71 points from 38 games with a win rate of 52.6%. They conceded an average of 0.76 goals per game, ranking first in defence. At home over their last 20 league matches, they won 11 of 15, averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.85 conceded.

Roma secured 73 points in the 2025-2026 season, with a win rate of 60.5%. They averaged 1.55 goals scored and conceded 0.82 per game. Their away record over the last 20 league games showed 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.45 conceded.

The historical record shows 4 meetings, with each side winning twice. Over these 4 games, 2 featured 2 or fewer total goals. The average total was 2.25 goals per match.

Comparing league-wide stats to their home splits, Como scored 1.71 and conceded 0.76 on average across the season, but at home they scored 1.95 and conceded 0.85. Roma's league numbers were 1.55 scored and 0.82 conceded, while their away record saw them score 1.60 and concede 1.45.

Como has a 21-day rest advantage, while Roma's schedule strength over their last 4 fixtures was slightly tougher (avg rank 9.3). The data also shows a short turnaround is not a factor for either side.

The Poisson model, with high confidence, projects Como as the winner at 44.5%, with a draw at 29.9% and Roma at 25.6%. The most likely individual scoreline is 1-0 (15.8%). The model projects a combined goals total of approximately 2.02, with a 39.3% probability of both teams scoring. The winning margin is projected to be tight, with a 25% chance of a one-goal home win.

The data, driven by Como's strong home form and defence, and Roma's slightly weaker away record, points toward a Como victory. The projected scorelines of 1-0 and 0-0 indicate a low-scoring game. The projection would be contradicted by Roma's stronger season-wide attack and their current undefeated run.