CagliarivsJuventus

Cagliari host Juventus at Unipol Domus in Serie A round six, with the table figures below drawn from the 2025-26 campaign because the current season is still too young to read. The gap in those numbers is wide: Juventus finished sixth on 69 points with a plus-27 goal difference, Cagliari 14th on 43 with minus-13. The Poisson model makes Juventus a 55.8% favourite.

Cagliari's 2025-26 record of 11W 10D 17L, 40 scored and 53 conceded left them ranked 15th of 20 for attack and 16th for defence. Their home split was considerably better than the season as a whole: 9W 4D 7L across the last 20, conceding 0.8 per game against 1.39 overall. Recent form reads WWWLL, the last five averaging one goal scored and 0.8 conceded.

Juventus finished sixth with 19W 12D 7L, scoring 61 and conceding 34 — third in the league at both ends of the pitch. Away from home they went 10W 5D 5L over the last 20, averaging 1.55 scored and 1.15 conceded. Their last five form line is WWLDW, at 2.4 goals scored per game.

Four meetings are on record. Cagliari hold 1W 1D 2L and Juventus 2W 1D 1L, with seven goals in total — 1.75 per meeting — and three of the four producing two goals or fewer. Four matches is a small sample, so the record is descriptive rather than something to lean on heavily.

Cagliari's home figures invert their season profile: a 45% win rate in the last 20 at home against 28.9% overall, and 0.8 conceded per home game against 1.39 overall. Juventus travelled almost as well as they played generally — 50% away wins matching their 50% overall win rate — with only a slight dip in scoring, 1.55 against 1.61.

Both sides arrive off long gaps: 22 days since Cagliari's last listed match and 21 for Juventus. Cagliari's recent opponents averaged a rank of 10.8, Juventus's an average of 9, a marginally tougher set of fixtures. The model rates its own confidence in this fixture as high.

The Poisson model gives Juventus 55.8%, the draw 25.3% and Cagliari 18.9%, with a projected score of 0-1 from expected values of 0.8 and 1.57. The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-1 (14.7%), 1-1 (11.7%) and 0-2 (11.6%). It projects about 2.37 goals combined, a 68.5% chance of two or more, and a 43.5% chance that each side scores at least once. Away wins by two or more carry 29.8%, against 5.7% for home wins by the same margin.

The data points towards a Juventus win: stronger league position, top-three rankings at both ends, and a 55.8% model probability with a 29.8% share for away wins by two or more. Cagliari's home record is the main counterweight — 45% home wins and 0.8 conceded per game is a far better profile than their overall figures. If that home form translates, the model's clear away lean would look overstated.