Le HavrevsBrest

This Round 3 Ligue 1 fixture pits Le Havre against Brest, two sides who finished mid-table in 2025-26. The model gives the hosts a 40% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, while projecting a 1-1 scoreline. With only two rounds of the new season played, the figures below are drawn from last season's table.

Le Havre ended last season 14th, with a win rate of 20.6% and a defence that ranked fifth in the league. Their home record over the last 20 games was six wins, nine draws and five losses, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.05 per game. The last five outings produced one win, one draw and three losses, with an average of 0.8 goals scored.

Brest finished 12th last season, averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per match. Away from home over the last 20 games they won four, drew five and lost eleven, conceding 1.85 per game. Their most recent five matches included one win and three draws, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.

The four recorded meetings between the clubs are split 3-1 in Brest's favour. Le Havre have scored just once in those games, while Brest have five goals. Every meeting produced two or fewer total goals, for an average of 1.5 per fixture.

Le Havre's home scoring rate of 1.15 per game is above their season average of 0.94, and they concede less frequently at home. Brest's away form is markedly worse than their overall numbers: 0.95 scored and 1.85 conceded away, against 1.26 and 1.62 overall.

Both sides have had seven days' rest since their last match. Le Havre's recent schedule has been tougher, with an average opponent rank of 5.5 across two fixtures, compared with 10.0 for Brest's one fixture. The model rates its confidence as high, but Brest's last-five form and the limited head-to-head sample leave room for variance.

The model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27.3% and Brest 32.7%. It projects about 2.44 total goals, with a 70% probability of at least two goals and a 49.5% chance that each side scores at least once. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%, while the most likely outcome is a home win. Home wins by one goal are forecast at 22%, with draws at 27.3%.

The key splits are Le Havre's home solidity and Brest's vulnerability on the road. The model sees a narrowly home-favoured, low-scoring contest, with a single goal potentially decisive. If Brest's attack outpaces its away scoring average, the draw or an away win becomes more plausible.