ToulousevsLille

Toulouse host Lille in Ligue 1 round 3, with both sides still settling into the new campaign. The numbers come from last season, where Lille finished 3rd and Toulouse 10th. Lille have won all four recorded meetings between the clubs, and the model makes them slight favourites at 41.5%.

Toulouse finished last season with 12 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses, scoring 1.42 goals per game and conceding 1.39. Their last five matches produced one win, two draws and two defeats, averaging one goal scored and 1.4 conceded. At home over a longer sample, their win rate drops to 35%.

Lille ended last season 3rd with 18 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses, posting the league's third-best defensive record at 1.09 goals conceded per game. Away from home they have been stronger still, winning 12 of their last 20 on the road at a 60% rate and averaging 1.8 goals scored. Their recent five-match stretch shows 2.6 goals scored per game.

The head-to-head record is one-sided: Toulouse have lost all four meetings, with Lille scoring 10 goals to Toulouse's 3. Every one of those games produced more than two total goals. The most recent encounter, in April 2026, ended 0-4 at Toulouse.

Toulouse's home numbers closely mirror their overall figures: 1.4 scored and 1.45 conceded per game at home versus 1.42 and 1.39 overall. Lille's away form is notably better than their general record, with a 60% win rate away versus 52.9% overall and a higher scoring rate of 1.8 per game.

Rest is nearly even: Toulouse had five days since their last match, Lille six. Lille faced a tougher recent schedule, averaging an opponent rank of 7 across two fixtures, while Toulouse averaged rank 11 across three. With only two rounds played this season, these projections lean on last season's data.

The Poisson model gives Lille a 41.5% win probability, a draw 25.1%, and Toulouse 33.4%, with high confidence. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%, despite Lille being the most likely winner. The model projects about 2.82 total goals, with a 77.1% chance of at least two goals and a 56.8% chance both teams score. On the margin, an away win by one goal is the largest single band at 21.2%, while away wins by two or more sit at 20.2%.

The data collectively points to a close contest with a slight edge to Lille, driven by their superior away form, stronger defensive record, and complete head-to-head dominance. A Toulouse victory would require them to break a four-match losing streak against Lille and improve on a home record that produced just seven wins in twenty. An away win, either by one goal or a wider margin, is the most consistent reading of these numbers.