LyonvsAuxerre

Lyon begin the third round of the Ligue 1 season at the Groupama Stadium against Auxerre, with all figures below drawn from the 2025-26 campaign. The hosts finished fourth with 60 points, while Auxerre closed 15th on 34. The model makes Lyon clear favourites at 58.4%.

Lyon's 2025-26 league record stands at 18 wins, six draws and 10 losses, averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game. Their last five results read DLWDW, with 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per match.

Auxerre managed eight wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats, scoring once per game and conceding 1.29. Their recent five-game sequence is LLWDD, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.

The four recorded meetings show Lyon unbeaten with two wins and two draws. Lyon have outscored Auxerre 8-5 across those games, with only one of the four producing two or fewer total goals. The most recent meeting, in April 2026, ended 3-2 to Lyon.

Lyon's home form over their last 20 games at this stadium is 13 wins, two draws and five losses, averaging 1.75 scored and 1.05 conceded. Auxerre's last 20 away games brought three wins, seven draws and 10 losses, with a 15% win rate and 1.65 conceded per game.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their most recent match on 29 August. Auxerre's two recent opponents rank 7.5 on average, a tougher slate than Lyon's average of 12, though Lyon's results were still superior. The model rates its confidence as high.

The Poisson model projects a 1-0 Lyon win, with expected goal values of 1.71 for the hosts and 0.83 for Auxerre. It assigns 58.4% to a home victory, 23.7% to a draw and 17.9% to an away win. Total goals are projected at 2.54, with a 25.6% chance of a one-goal home win and 32.8% chance of a two-goal-plus home margin. Each side scoring is put at 46.3%.

The data points to a controlled home win, with Lyon's strong attacking output and Auxerre's porous away record reinforcing the model's verdict. The main caveat is Auxerre's defensive ranking – sixth in the division last season – which is better than their overall position suggests. If that defence travels better than their away numbers imply, the margin could tighten.