JuventusvsParma

Round 2 of the Serie A season brings Juventus and Parma together at the Allianz Stadium. Last season's table placed the hosts sixth and the visitors thirteenth, and the model gives Juventus a 67% win probability — the most likely outcome.

Based on 2025-26 league data, Juventus finished sixth with 69 points from 38 games, averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. Their last five matches produced four wins and one defeat, with an average of 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded per game.

Parma placed thirteenth last season, with 45 points and averages of 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. Their recent five matches show one win, two draws, and two defeats, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.

The four meetings on record have produced two Juventus wins, one draw, and one Parma win, with Juventus outscoring Parma 8-4. Two of those games finished with two or fewer total goals.

At home in the last 20 matches, Juventus have won 12, drawn 5, and lost 3, averaging 1.85 scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Parma's last 20 away matches bring 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with 0.75 scored and 1.15 conceded per game — a record similar to their overall numbers, though their away win rate (35%) is modestly higher than their overall rate.

Both sides come in with a full week's rest, Juventus having played on August 23 and Parma on August 22. Their opening fixtures differed in difficulty: Juventus faced the top-ranked side from last season, while Parma faced the 14th-ranked team. Since only one round has been played, last season's statistics remain the primary basis for any projection.

The model, rated with high confidence, gives Juventus a 67% win probability, a 23.1% draw chance, and 9.9% for Parma. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19.9%), with 2-0 (16.5%) next; the expected goals are 1.66 for Juventus and 0.46 for Parma. The model expects about 2.1 total goals, with a 62.6% chance of at least two goals, and a 30% chance both sides score. From the home perspective, the most common expected margin is Juventus by two or more at 38.5%, followed by a one-goal home win at 28.5%.

The data collectively points to a Juventus win, with their strong home scoring record against Parma's limited away output. The main risk is the early stage of the season: if current form diverges from last season's figures, the projected gap could narrow.