Inter MilanvsParma

Inter Milan host Parma at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in round six of Serie A. The reference data here is last season's completed table, because current-season figures are too thin to lean on: Inter finished first on 87 points, Parma thirteenth on 45. The Poisson model makes Inter an 80.3% favourite.

Inter's 2025-26 campaign delivered the league's best attack and a top-five defence: 89 goals scored, 35 conceded, an average of 2.34 and 0.92 per game, ranking 1st for attack and 5th for defence. Their closing table form read DDWWD. Over the last five matches they averaged 2.4 scored and 1.8 conceded across a DWLWW run.

Parma ended 2025-26 thirteenth with 28 goals scored and 46 conceded, an average of 0.74 at one end and 1.21 at the other; their attack ranked 18th of 20 and their defence 10th. Their closing table form was WLLLW. The last five matches produced 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Four meetings are on record, falling between December 2024 and May 2026. Inter have won three and drawn one; Parma have won none. Inter lead the goals 9-3 across those fixtures, an average of three per meeting, though two of the four produced two goals or fewer.

Inter's home record over their last 20 reads 13W 3D 4L, with 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game and a 65% win rate, slightly below their overall 71.1%. Parma's away split is 7W 6D 7L, 0.75 scored and 1.05 conceded, a 35% win rate that sits above their overall 28.9%. Their away defensive figure is also better than their season-long one.

Both sides come off a long break, 21 days for Inter and 20 for Parma, so rest does not separate them. The schedule has, though: Inter's four recent fixtures came against opponents averaging rank 7.3, Parma's against rank 11. Neither side's strength figure carries a lower-division adjustment.

The model gives Inter 80.3%, the draw 14.1% and Parma 5.6%, at high confidence. It projects 2-0, from expected values of 2.41 and 0.48, with the leading exact scorelines 2-0 (16.2%), 1-0 (13.4%) and 3-0 (13%). Combined goals project to about 2.89, with a 78.4% chance of two or more and a 34.6% chance both sides score. The margin is two goals or more in 57.5% of the model's simulations.

The data points one way: the division's strongest attack against a side that averaged 0.74 goals per game and has not beaten Inter in four attempts. The case against that reading rests on Parma's away defence, which conceded 1.05 per game rather than their 1.21 overall, and on half the recorded meetings finishing with two goals or fewer.