Hull CityvsEverton

Hull City sit third in the 2026-27 Premier League table with six points from two matches, three goals scored and none conceded. Everton's figures come from the 2025-26 campaign, when they finished 13th on 49 points. The Poisson model makes Hull strong favourites at 76.9%, with the draw at 20.2% and an Everton win at 2.9%.

Hull have won both league matches so far, scoring three without reply, though that is a two-match sample. Within the division their attack ranks 11th of 20 and their defence second. Their last five results read L-D-L-D-W, averaging 0.8 goals scored and one conceded per game, and 22 days have passed since their most recent fixture.

Everton's table data is a season old: 13th in 2025-26 with 13 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats, 47 scored and 50 conceded, a win rate of 34.2%. Their away record over the last 20 is more solid — 8W 6D 6L at 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. The most recent five results are W-D-D-D-W, averaging 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.

No prior meetings between these two are on record, so there is no historical basis for either side here. With no sample at all, the head-to-head adds nothing to the projection.

Hull's home record over the last 20 is 8W 6D 6L, a 40% win rate, with 1.15 scored and 1.1 conceded per game — a clear step down from their perfect start to this season. Everton's away split is stronger defensively than their overall record, conceding 1.1 on the road against 1.32 overall, while scoring slightly more away (1.3) than their 1.24 average.

Both sides have had 22 days since their last match, so rest is even. Hull's league record rests on two fixtures and Everton's on a completed season, so both sets of table numbers carry caveats. Hull's recent opponents averaged a rank of 11.4, Everton's 14, meaning Hull's five-match window came against the tougher schedule of the two.

The model gives Hull 76.9% to win, a draw 20.2% and Everton 2.9%, at high confidence. It projects 1-0, from expected values of 1.69 goals for Hull and 0.15 for Everton, with roughly 1.84 goals in total. The most probable exact scores are 1-0 (26.9%), 2-0 (22.7%) and 0-0 (15.9%); there is a 54.8% chance of two or more goals and an 11.4% chance both teams score. A Hull win by two or more appears in 46.4% of projections and by exactly one in 30.4%.

The data points to a Hull win: a 76.9% probability, a projected 1-0, and an Everton expected-goals figure of 0.15 that sits far below their 1.3 away average from the last 20. The main counterweight is sample size — two league matches for Hull, and an Everton baseline drawn from a season ago. A draw, at 20.2%, is the outcome that would most obviously expose that thinness.