GetafevsCelta Vigo

Fixture between Getafe and Celta Vigo sees Celta Vigo as the statistical favorite. The model projects the most likely result as a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 36.1%, while a draw sits at 32% and a home victory is at 31.9%.

Getafe finished the 2025-2026 season ranked 7th with 51 points, scoring 32 and conceding 38. Their home form from last season was average at best, with a record of 9W 3D 8L and an average of one goal scored and 0.85 conceded per game.

Celta Vigo ranked 6th in the previous season with 54 points, scoring more (53) than they conceded (48). Their away record was strong at 9W 8D 3L, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

The head-to-head record is balanced with Getafe holding a 1W 1D 2L record and Celta Vigo holding a 2W 1D 1L record. Six goals were scored across the four meetings, with three of those games featuring two or fewer total goals.

Comparing the teams' recent performance from last season, Celta Vigo's away attack (1.3 goals) significantly outperformed Getafe's league-wide attack (0.84 goals), while Getafe's home defence (0.85 conceded) was slightly better than Celta Vigo's away defence (0.9 conceded).

A congested schedule is a factor for Celta Vigo, who have four days of rest. Getafe has had a week off since their last match. The model projects about 1.88 total goals in this match.

The Poisson model projects a 0-0 scoreline with the highest probability of 15.3%. It is also fairly likely to see Celta Vigo win by a margin of 1 goal (22.6%). The combined goals total is expected to be around 1.88, with a 56% chance of at least two goals being scored.

The statistical projection heavily favors Celta Vigo as the winner. A draw is the next most likely outcome. The model is fairly confident in this assessment, and it points towards a relatively low-scoring game.