EvertonvsManchester United

Everton host Manchester United at Hill Dickinson Stadium in round 3 of the Premier League season. The figures below draw on the 2025-26 campaign, where United finished third and Everton 13th. The model gives the visitors a 44.6% win probability, the strongest single outcome, while also making 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline.

Everton's 2025-26 season ended with 49 points from 38 games, scoring 1.24 and conceding 1.32 per game. Their last five matches, most recent first, read D-W-W-D-W, with the side averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in that stretch.

Manchester United collected 71 points last season, ranking third and averaging 1.82 goals scored per game. Their recent five show one win, two draws and two losses, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.

The four recorded meetings are evenly balanced: Everton have won one, drawn one and lost two, while United have won two, drawn one and lost one. Everton have scored three goals across those games, United seven. Two of the four meetings produced two or fewer total goals.

Everton's home record over their last 20 league games at Hill Dickinson Stadium is 6W 6D 8L, with a win rate of 30%, slightly below their overall 34.2%. United's away record over their last 20 road games is 8W 7D 5L (40% win rate), below their overall 52.6% but still a better split than Everton's home numbers.

Everton have had eight days of rest since their last match, one more than United. They also faced a tougher recent schedule, with three opponents averaging rank 11 compared with United's one opponent at rank 14.

The Poisson model has high confidence in its projection. United win at 44.6%, draw at 23.6%, and Everton at 31.8%. The projected scoreline is 1-1 (expected goals 1.39 to 1.69), and the model expects around 3.08 total goals, with an 81.3% chance of at least two goals and a 61.3% chance each side scores. The winning-margin distribution is tight: an away win by 2+ occurs at 23.4%, away by 1 at 21.2%, a draw at 23.6%, home by 1 at 17.5%, and home by 2+ at 14.3%.

The data points to a narrow Manchester United advantage, but with significant uncertainty. United's overall quality compared with Everton's mid-table standing gives them the edge, while Everton's recent defensive improvement could keep this close. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, yet the model's single most likely outcome remains a United win. That projection would be wrong if Everton sustain their recent scoring form (2.2 per game) against a United defence that conceded two per game in their last five.