Everton2-0Crystal Palace

The 2026-27 Premier League season opens for both sides at Hill Dickinson Stadium, where Everton host Crystal Palace. Since this is the first match of the new campaign, the table figures shown below come from the 2025-26 season. Everton finished 13th with 49 points, while Crystal Palace were 15th with 45 points, separated by just four points.

Two numbers stand out ahead of kick-off. Everton have won three of the four recorded meetings between these teams, and the model gives them a 46.5% win probability, making an Everton win the most likely outcome. Yet the projected scoreline is 1-1, a reminder that the expected margin is thin. Crystal Palace also arrive with a 90-day gap since their last competitive match, making this their season opener, while Everton played 25 days ago.

Everton's 2025-26 campaign produced 13 wins, 10 draws and 15 losses in 38 matches, with 47 goals scored and 50 conceded. Their attack ranked 15th in the division, but their defence ranked 7th, suggesting a side that was more solid at the back than their final position might imply. They averaged 1.24 goals per game and conceded 1.32.

At home, their last 20 matches brought 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. That home win rate of 35% is the same as Crystal Palace's away win rate. Their most recent five results, most recent first, read LLLDD, ending the previous season with three consecutive losses. They last played on 2026-07-28, 25 days before this fixture.

Crystal Palace finished 15th last season with 11 wins, 12 draws and 15 losses, scoring 41 and conceding 51. Their attack ranked 18th of 20, while their defence ranked 9th. They averaged 1.08 goals per game and conceded 1.34. Away from home, their last 20 matches show 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, averaging 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded, with a 35% win rate.

Their recent form, most recent first, is LDLDL, meaning they closed the season with more defeats than wins. The larger context is their schedule gap: they have not played since 2026-05-24, a 90-day layoff that makes this their season opener. That long break introduces added uncertainty around how quickly they adjust to competitive football again.

The head-to-head record contains only four meetings, and Everton have had the better of them: 3 wins and 1 draw, with no wins for Crystal Palace. The aggregate score across those matches is 8-5 in Everton's favour, an average of 3.25 goals per meeting.

All four meetings produced at least three total goals. The results were a 2-2 draw in May 2026, a 2-1 Everton home win in October 2025, a 2-1 Everton away win in February 2025, and a 2-1 Everton home win in September 2024. The sample is small, so it should not be over-weighted, but it is consistent with Everton having the better of this fixture.

Everton's home numbers from last season show a slightly higher scoring rate than their overall average: 1.4 goals per game at home versus 1.24 overall. They also conceded marginally more at home, 1.35 per game versus 1.32 overall. Crystal Palace's away numbers show a similar pattern: they scored 1.15 per game away versus 1.08 overall, but conceded 1.45 away versus 1.34 overall.

Home advantage has not been overwhelming for Everton, whose 35% home win rate from the last 20 matches is equal to Palace's away win rate. The model still makes Everton the most likely winner, but the edge is narrow, and the two sides' split records suggest little separates them on form at this venue.

The most notable structural factor is the rest difference. Everton played on 2026-07-28, giving them 25 days of preparation, while Crystal Palace have not played since 2026-05-24, a 90-day gap that makes this their season opener. That does not automatically imply an advantage, but it means Palace have had no competitive match action in the build-up.

Schedule strength also separates the two recent runs. Everton's last four fixtures came against opponents with an average rank of 10.3, while Palace's last five came against opponents with an average rank of 6.2. Palace faced tougher opposition on paper, which may partly explain their modest recent form. As all figures come from the previous season, projections carry the usual caveat that a new campaign can reset expectations.

The Poisson model rates this as a high-confidence projection. It gives Everton a 46.5% win probability, a 26.8% chance of a draw, and a 26.7% chance of a Crystal Palace win. The most likely outcome across all possibilities is an Everton win, even though the most likely individual scoreline is 1-1, which carries 12.6% probability, equal to the 1-0 scoreline. The projected score is 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Everton and 1.0 for Palace.

The model expects about 2.42 total goals. There is a 69.6% chance of at least two goals, a 43.5% chance of at least three, and a 22.5% chance of at least four. The probability of both teams scoring is 48%, meaning a clean sheet for one side is slightly more likely than not.

Looking at the winning margin, the distribution favours a tight game. A draw is the single most likely result category at 26.8%, but the combined home-win probability is 46.5%. A one-goal home win is projected at 23.9%, a one-goal away win at 17%, a home win by two or more at 22.5%, and an away win by two or more at 9.7%. In total, a draw or a one-goal margin accounts for roughly two-thirds of the probability.

The data points to a narrow Everton advantage. Their head-to-head record, home venue, and the model's win probability all favour the hosts, but the projected scoreline and margin distribution suggest a game that could reasonably end level or be decided by a single goal. Both sides had similar home/away win rates last season, and neither was far from mid-table in the final standings.

The main caveats are the 90-day layoff for Crystal Palace, which makes their early-season form an unknown, and the fact that all form figures come from the previous campaign. If Everton's late-season defensive pattern—conceding an average of two goals per game across their final five matches—continues, and Palace score at their away average of 1.15 per game, an away result becomes more plausible. Based on the full set of numbers, however, an Everton win is the single most likely outcome, with the draw the next most probable result.