Crystal PalacevsNottingham Forest

Premier League table data from 2025-2026 shows Crystal Palace at rank 15 with a goal difference of -10, while Nottingham Forest rank 16 with a goal difference of -3. The model projects the highest probability for a Crystal Palace win at 37.3%, closely followed by a draw at 27.5% and an away win at 35.2%.

Palace’s 2025-2026 season figures show an average of 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game, with a home attack ranked 18th in the league. Their home record in the last 20 matches averages 1.15 scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Forest’s 2025-2026 campaign averages 1.26 scored and 1.34 conceded per game, with their away attack ranked 13th and defence ranked 10th. Away in their last 20 matches, they averaged 1.65 scored and 1.45 conceded per game.

There are four historical meetings on record, all of which finished with two or fewer total goals. Palace have not won any of these fixtures, managing only three draws. Forest have won once, scoring four goals across the four meetings.

In their last 20 home matches, Palace scored an average of 1.15 goals, while their defence conceded 1.5. Their most recent match was a loss on 2026-09-20. Forest’s last 20 away games averaged 1.65 goals scored and 1.45 conceded, with a win rate of 45%.

The latest fixture was played on 2026-09-20 for Palace, giving them 21 days of rest, while Forest played on 2026-09-19, resting for 22 days. Both teams are coming from a schedule of average strength based on opponent ranks.

The model projects a combined total of about 2.42 goals, with a 69.6% probability of two or more goals and a 43.6% chance of three or more. The highest-probability exact scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, followed by 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (10.6%).

The high confidence in the 1-1 projection reflects the model’s 1.23 expected goals for Palace and 1.19 for Forest. The tight win-margin distribution indicates the match is expected to be decisive, with the most likely margin being a one-goal difference.