Crystal PalacevsManchester City

The second round of the Premier League season brings Manchester City to Selhurst Park. With only one round played, the figures below are drawn from the 2025-26 season, when City finished second and Crystal Palace 15th. The model gives City a 62.5% win probability, with a home win at 16% and a draw at 21.6%.

Crystal Palace ended 2025-26 15th with 45 points from 38 games, scoring 1.08 and conceding 1.34 per match. Their attack ranked 18th in the league, while the defence was 9th. Their last five competitive results read LLLLD, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.

Manchester City finished second in 2025-26 with 78 points, averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, with the league's top-ranked attack and second-ranked defence. Their recent form is WLWDL, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per game in that stretch.

The four recorded meetings have gone decisively to Manchester City: three wins and a draw, with Crystal Palace yet to win. City have outscored Palace 13-4 across those games, an average of 4.25 goals per meeting, and none of the four finished with two or fewer goals. The most recent result was a 3-0 City win at home in May 2026.

At Selhurst Park in their last 20 home matches, Crystal Palace have won four, drawn nine and lost seven, a 20% win rate that is below their 28.9% overall mark. Manchester City's away record over the same sample is 9W 5D 6L, a 45% win rate that is also lower than their 60.5% overall figure, and they have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per away game.

Both sides come in on five or six days' rest, so fatigue is not a differentiator. Palace's recent schedule averaged an opponent rank of 8.5, while City's averaged 3.7, suggesting City have faced tougher opposition of late. With the current season still one round old, these projections carry the usual early-season uncertainty from relying on last year's data.

The model's confidence is high. City win at 62.5%, with the most likely exact scoreline 0-1 at 12.1%, followed by 0-2 (11.6%) and 1-1 (10.2%). It projects about 2.76 goals combined, with a 76.2% chance of at least two goals and a 48.7% chance both sides score. On the margin, City by two or more is the most common margin category at 37.5%, while a one-goal City win sits at 25%.

The aggregate numbers point to a Manchester City win, with a 62.5% probability and a projected 0-1 scoreline. A draw is the next most plausible result at 21.6%. For the projection to fail, City would need to match their more modest away form from last season rather than their overall attacking output, or Palace would need to exceed their home scoring average.