CagliarivsInter Milan

This Serie A round 2 fixture pits last season's 14th-placed side Cagliari against the champions Inter Milan at Unipol Domus. The model sees a clear favorite, giving the visitors a 70.4% win probability and projecting a 0-2 scoreline. Notably, the data used for this preview comes from the 2025-26 season, as the current standings are too small to be meaningful.

Cagliari finished 14th in 2025-26 with 43 points from 11 wins, 10 draws and 17 losses, scoring 1.05 and conceding 1.39 per game. Their last five matches read WWDDW, averaging one goal scored and 0.4 conceded. At home they won 8 of their last 20, but also dropped points in 12.

Inter were dominant in 2025-26, finishing top with 87 points, a 27-6-5 record, and a goal difference of +54. Their recent five results are WWWDD, with an average of 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per match. On the road, they won 12 of their last 20 away games while averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Inter have won all four recorded meetings, outscoring Cagliari 11-1. Three of those games produced three or more total goals, and only one finished with two or fewer. The sample is small but entirely one-sided.

Cagliari's home form shows a 40% win rate over their last 20 at Unipol Domus, with a goal difference of roughly zero (1.05 scored, 1.0 conceded). Inter's away form is stronger: a 60% win rate, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.95 per game. These splits reinforce the model's preference for the visitors.

Both teams have had an equal eight-day rest since their last match on 22 August, removing any freshness edge. Inter's two recent opponents averaged a rank of 5.5, indicating a tougher schedule than Cagliari's one opponent (rank 13). Inter's status as the reigning champions, based on the 2025-26 table, is a further indicator.

The Poisson model gives Inter a 70.4% chance of winning, with Cagliari at 11.9% and a draw at 17.7%. The projected score is 0-2, and the expected total is 3.11 goals, with an 81.7% probability of two or more and 60.1% of three or more. The most likely exact scores are 0-2, 0-1, and 1-2. Confidence is high, and the margin distribution puts a 47% probability on an away win by two or more.

The data points overwhelmingly to an Inter win, with the model giving them a roughly seven-in-ten chance. For Cagliari to take anything, they would need to keep the total below the projected 3.1 goals and turn one of their few chances into points, but the underlying numbers give that scenario little support. The most probable outcome remains a comfortable away victory, though the 17.7% draw probability shows a narrow path to a stalemate.