BournemouthvsEverton

This is the second round of the Premier League season, and the table data here comes from last season, when Bournemouth finished sixth and Everton 13th. The model gives Bournemouth a 48.7% win probability, the highest single outcome, but also projects a 1-1 scoreline. That tension between the most likely scoreline and the most likely result is the key feature of this fixture.

Bournemouth's 2025-26 campaign saw them average 1.53 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. Their most recent five matches have been high-scoring, averaging 3.8 goals for and 1.8 against, with results reading LLDWW. That run includes a match on August 23, leaving six days of rest.

Everton finished 13th last season with an average of 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game. Their last five matches show three wins, one draw and one loss (WDWLW), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. They played most recently on August 22, with seven days of rest.

Bournemouth have won three of the last four meetings, with Everton winning the other. The four matches have produced 10 goals, an average of 2.5 per game, and two of the four finished with two or fewer total goals.

At home, Bournemouth's last 20 matches show eight wins, ten draws and two losses, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding 1.1. Everton's last 20 away matches show eight wins, five draws and seven losses, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.2. Bournemouth's home scoring rate is notably higher than their overall average.

Bournemouth have faced a much tougher opening schedule, with their one recent opponent ranked second on average, while Everton's two opponents averaged rank 13.5. Rest days are near-identical at six and seven. The scoring patterns from last season and recent form point to a game where goals are likely from the home side, but Everton's away defence has been solid.

The Poisson model rates this as a high-confidence projection. Bournemouth are given a 48.7% chance to win, with the draw at 23.7% and Everton at 27.6%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, but the most likely outcome is a home win. The model expects about 2.96 total goals, with a 79.5% chance of at least two and a 56.8% chance of at least three. From the home perspective, a win by two or more (26.2%) is the largest margin category, ahead of a draw (23.7%) and a one-goal home win (22.5%).

The data points to a close, high-scoring contest in which Bournemouth hold a clear but not overwhelming edge. The model's high confidence in a home win is tempered by the 1-1 projected scoreline and a 23.7% draw probability. If Bournemouth's home scoring continues at recent levels, they should have enough; if Everton's away solidity holds and Bournemouth's defensive vulnerabilities (they concede 1.1 at home) are exposed, an upset or draw is well within reach.