BolognavsSassuolo

Bologna vs Sassuolo at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Bologna enter the match coming off a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo in December, but the hosts lost the reverse fixture 1-0 in March. The model projects a combined 2.48 goals.

Bologna finished last season 8th with 56 points. Their attack averaged 1.29 goals per game, though they had a weak home record of 0.85 scored per game, with a 20% win rate in their last 20 home fixtures.

Sassuolo finished 11th with 49 points. Their attack averaged 1.21 goals per game, a similar rate to their season average. Away from home they averaged 1.1 goals scored per game with a 25% win rate.

Two meetings are on record, with a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 win for Bologna. In both matches, there were two or fewer total goals.

Bologna's home scoring average of 0.85 per game is well below their overall season average of 1.29. Sassuolo's season average was 1.21 scored per game, higher than their 1.1 average away from home.

Sassuolo are coming off a congested schedule, with only four days of rest before this fixture, while Bologna have a six-day gap since their last match.

The model projects a home win at 46.8%, a draw at 26.4%, and an away win at 26.8%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. The model projects around 2.48 combined goals, with a 70.9% probability of at least two goals.

The projection favors Bologna, with a 46.8% win probability. The model's high confidence suggests that Sassuolo's congested schedule is a relevant factor. However, the expected goal margin is low, with the model projecting a draw at 26.4%.