AtalantavsVenezia

Atalanta host Venezia at the New Balance Arena with the 2025-2026 season statistics as the primary reference point. Atalanta sat 7th in the table, scoring 1.34 goals per game and conceding 0.95. Venezia began the 2026-27 season 19th with 0 points from two matches. The model projects a narrow but decisive victory for the home side.

In the previous season, Atalanta were 39.5% successful at home, with a record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their home goal average was 1.4, and they conceded 1.05 per game.

Atalanta’s recent form consisted of a draw, a loss, and a loss before a winning run. Venezia have lost their first two matches of the current season. In their last five games, Venezia averaged one goal scored per match and conceded 2.6.

Two meetings have produced one draw and one Atalanta victory. Atalanta have scored twice, and Venezia have failed to score in those games. All recorded matches involved two or fewer total goals.

Atalanta’s home scoring average (1.4) is comparable to their season average (1.34), while their home concession rate (1.05) is lower than the season-wide figure of 0.95. In contrast, Venezia’s away record last season saw them score 1.95 and concede 1.3 per game.

Venezia have a 0% win rate in their first two games. Atalanta had a long rest of 22 days. The home side faced a tougher recent schedule with an average opponent rank of 7.8 compared to Venezia’s 9.8.

The model assigns an 86.3% probability of an Atalanta win, with a projected score of 2-0. It gives a 22.9% likelihood to the 2-0 exact scoreline and 20.1% to a 1-0 result. The model expects about 2.43 combined goals, with a 69.8% chance of two or more goals. A win margin of at least two goals is projected at 62.6%.

The data points strongly to an Atalanta victory, driven by their home scoring rate and the away side's early-season struggles. The model expects the home side to win by a margin of two goals, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. This prediction would be invalidated if Venezia’s 0-2 home goal average is more indicative of their strength than their current form.