AtalantavsBologna

This Serie A round-two meeting pits two sides that finished three points apart last season, with Atalanta seventh and Bologna eighth. The figures below come from the 2025-26 campaign, as the current table is still too small to be meaningful. Atalanta enter with a 49% win probability from the model.

Atalanta ended 2025-26 with 59 points, scoring 1.34 and conceding 0.95 per game. At home across their last 20 fixtures they won 12, drew 3 and lost 5, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against. Their most recent five matches brought three wins, a draw and a defeat, with 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded per match.

Bologna collected 56 points last season, with 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. Away from home over 20 matches they recorded 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Their last five outings have been less stable: three losses, a win and a draw, scoring once per game and conceding 1.6.

Four meetings are on record, with Atalanta taking two wins, Bologna one and the other drawn. Atalanta have outscored Bologna 5-2 across those games. All four meetings produced two or fewer total goals, including the most recent, which ended 1-0 to Bologna in May 2026.

Atalanta’s home output is a touch stronger than their overall numbers, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded at home. Bologna match that scoring rate away (1.5 per game) but concede 1.2. With Bologna winning half of their last 20 away matches, the venue advantage may be less pronounced than the table suggests.

Both sides have had similar rest, with eight days for Atalanta and seven for Bologna since their last matches. Schedule strength has been moderate for each: Atalanta faced an average opponent ranked 11th in one fixture, Bologna an average of 14.5th across two. Since the underlying data is from last season, early-season form could shift the picture.

The model, with high confidence, puts Atalanta at 49%, the draw at 27.5% and Bologna at 23.4%. The projected score is 1-0, and the most probable exact scoreline is also 1-0 at 14.7%. It projects about 2.24 total goals, with a 65.6% chance of two or more and a 43.3% chance each side scores at least once. On margins, a one-goal home win (25.3%) is slightly more likely than a home win by two or more (23.7%), with the draw at 27.5%.

The balance of evidence points to a narrow Atalanta win, supported by home form, a sturdier defensive record and a head-to-head edge apart from the latest meeting. That said, the model’s 49% probability is not overwhelming, and Bologna’s strong away performance over a longer sample keeps this competitive. The most likely outcome is the hosts taking all three points, likely in a low-scoring affair.