AC Milan2-0Venezia

AC Milan and Venezia meet in Serie A round 2 at San Siro. Milan's table data comes from 2025-26, when they finished fifth with 70 points; Venezia's league record is not available. The model backs a home win, giving Milan a 57.6% probability.

Last season Milan scored 1.39 per game and conceded 0.92, ranking fourth for defence. Across their last five matches (WWLDL) they have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, with the concession rate notably above their season-long figure. They last played on 2026-08-23.

Venezia's table position is not recorded, so their away sample of 20 matches is the main reference: 8 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses, averaging 1.95 scored and 1.15 conceded. Their recent run is LWDLW with 2.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. They also come in on five days' rest.

The two meetings on record are both Milan wins: 2-0 away in April 2025 and 4-0 at home in September 2024. The aggregate is 6-0. With only two games, the sample is small, but the pattern is clear.

Milan's home record from last season: 45% win rate, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Venezia's away record from their last 20 matches: 40% win rate, 1.95 scored and 1.15 conceded per game. The most notable difference is that Venezia score considerably more on the road than Milan do at home.

Both teams have five days of rest, so fatigue is equal. Milan's recent schedule has been tougher: their last three opponents averaged rank 9, while Venezia's single recent opponent averaged rank 17. Venezia's lack of a recorded league table introduces uncertainty into any projection.

The model gives Milan a 57.6% win probability, with draw at 23.3% and Venezia at 19.1%. The expected score is 1-0, and the most likely exact scores are 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0. It projects 2.67 total goals on average, a 74.6% chance of at least two goals, and a 49.4% chance both teams score. From Milan's perspective, a win by two or more is the leading margin (32.7%), followed by a one-goal win (25%).

The data collectively points to AC Milan as the clear favorite, with the model's 57.6% win probability and a decisive-margin edge. The main counterweights are the small head-to-head sample and the absence of Venezia's league table, which leave room for an upset. A draw or a narrow Milan victory are the most realistic alternative outcomes.