WorthingvsBoreham Wood

This National League fixture sees Worthing host Boreham Wood at Woodside Road. Both sides are on a short turnaround, and the model gives Boreham Wood a 42.4% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes. There are no previous meetings on record, so history offers little guidance.

Worthing have won two of their last three home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their broader recent form shows five matches with an average of 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, producing three wins and two losses. The side last played on 28 August, giving them three days of rest.

Boreham Wood have won all three of their most recent away matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their last five matches overall show four wins and a draw, with averages of 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. They last played on 27 August, one day before Worthing.

There are no prior meetings on record between Worthing and Boreham Wood, so head-to-head form cannot inform the preview.

Worthing's home scoring average of 1.67 is slightly below their recent overall mark of 2.0 per game. Boreham Wood's away scoring average of 2.67 is nearly identical to their recent overall average of 2.6, and both sides have conceded 0.67 per game in their respective splits. The sample covers just three home and three away matches, so these numbers are preliminary.

Both teams face congested schedules, with Worthing on three days' rest and Boreham Wood on four. The absence of head-to-head meetings adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence reflects that. No league table data is available for either side, limiting context on their broader standing.

The model projects a low-scoring encounter, with expected goals of 0.89 for Worthing and 1.18 for Boreham Wood, and a projected scoreline of 0-1. It gives Boreham Wood a 42.4% chance of winning, the most likely outcome, alongside a 29.8% draw probability and 27.7% for a home win. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1 at 14.9%, followed by 1-1 at 13.3% and 0-0 at 12.7%. Total goals are projected at about 2.06, with a 61.1% probability of at least two goals and a 40.7% chance that both sides score.

The data points toward a narrow away win, buoyed by Boreham Wood's perfect away record and superior scoring output. However, the model's medium confidence, the congested schedule, and the lack of head-to-head history leave room for an upset. If Worthing's home scoring efficiency holds and Boreham Wood's defensive numbers slip, the home side could take something from the match.