Solihull MoorsvsAFC Fylde

This National League round-five meeting pairs a Solihull side without a home win in their last four at Damson Park against an AFC Fylde side that arrives with a 52.9% win probability in the model. The projected scoreline is 1-2, and there is no head-to-head record to draw on, making this a fixture driven almost entirely by recent form.

Solihull Moors come into this match on a five-game losing run, their most recent stretch averaging 1.2 goals scored and 3.4 conceded. At home specifically, they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last four, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2.5 conceded. League table data is not available for the side.

AFC Fylde have won two and lost two of their last five, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their away form over the last four is one win, one draw and two losses, with 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded per game. There is no league table data available for the visitors.

There are no prior meetings between Solihull Moors and AFC Fylde on record. With a sample size of zero, the head-to-head provides no basis for prediction, and the fixture will be shaped by recent form and the model's projections.

Across their last five matches, Solihull average 1.2 goals scored and 3.4 conceded; in their last four at home, that drops to 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded. Across their last five, Fylde average 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded; in their last four away, that shifts to 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have had three days of rest since their last match, a short turnaround that applies equally.

Both sides are on a three-day turnaround, flagged as a short recovery period. There is no head-to-head history to inform expectations, and the absence of league table data means the model relies on recent form and scoring rates. The model's medium confidence reflects that limited context.

The model gives AFC Fylde a 52.9% win probability, Solihull 25.8%, and the draw 21.3%. The projected scoreline is 1-2, and the most likely individual scoreline is also 1-2, at 9.4%. Combined goals are projected at about 3.45, with an 85.9% chance of two or more and a 67% chance of three or more. The model also gives a 65.6% probability of each side scoring at least once, and the margin distribution leans away, with a 31.3% chance of an away win by two or more goals.

The data points to an away win, with the model assigning 52.9% probability to that outcome. Solihull's winless home run and Fylde's recent scoring averages support the projection, though the head-to-head is empty and the model's confidence is medium. A draw or home win remains plausible at 21.3% and 25.8% respectively.