Wisła Płock IIvsMławianka Mława

This Round 6 fixture in Polish III liga Group I sees Wisła Płock II host Mławianka Mława. The model assigns an 81.4% win probability to the home side and projects a 2-0 scoreline. No league table data is available, and the clubs have never met before, so recent form and venue splits anchor the analysis.

Wisła Płock II have won two of their last four home matches (2W 1D 1L), averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their most recent five matches overall are LDDWW, with an average of 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

Mławianka Mława's last three away matches brought one win, one draw, and one loss, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded. Their overall recent five-match form reads DLLLW, matching the same scoring and conceding averages.

There are no prior meetings on record between Wisła Płock II and Mławianka Mława. With such a small sample, head-to-head history offers no meaningful signal.

At home, Wisła Płock II have a 50% win rate (2W 1D 1L), above their 40% across the last five overall. Mławianka Mława's away win rate of 33.3% is also higher than their 20% overall figure from the last five, while their scoring and conceding averages remain the same.

The model's confidence is medium, yet it gives the hosts an 81.4% chance of victory and expects 2.79 goals against 0.66. Rest days are nearly even (6 vs 7), and neither side faces a congested schedule. With no head-to-head history, the principal uncertainty is whether Mławianka can outperform their recent away numbers.

The most likely outcome is a home win (81.4%) with a projected 2-0 scoreline; the most probable exact scores are 2-0 (12.4%), 3-0 (11.5%), and 1-0 (8.9%). Total goals are projected at about 3.45, with an 85.8% chance of at least two goals and a 61.5% chance of a home victory by two or more. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 45.3%.

The data points to a home victory by a comfortable margin, with the model's most likely outcome being a Wisła Płock II win. A two-goal lead is the single most plausible path, though a one-goal result is also possible. The forecast would be wrong if Mławianka Mława produce better than their recent away form suggests, but the evidence does not indicate that.