Jagiellonia Białystok IIvsLechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

This is a Round 6 fixture in Polish III liga Group I, with both sides level on six days' rest. The model strongly favors the home side, giving Jagiellonia Białystok II an 81.4% win probability and a projected 2-0 scoreline. However, neither side has any on-record league table data, and no prior meetings exist between these teams.

Jagiellonia Białystok II have won one and drawn one of their last two home matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Their overall recent form across the last five games reads LWDDW, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. That suggests some defensive inconsistency despite the solid home numbers.

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki have split their last four away games with two wins and two losses, averaging 2.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. Their recent five-game form is WWWLL — three wins followed by two losses in the sequence, with the wins coming most recently — and they average 2.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides. That leaves the head-to-head sample empty, so any historical edge cannot be assessed.

The home side's venue numbers are strong — two games, one win and one draw, with a 2-0.5 goal average. The away side's travels are more erratic: two wins and two losses in four away games, with a goal average of 2.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides are more productive going forward in their respective splits than their overall recent form might suggest.

Both teams come in on six days' rest, so neither has a scheduling advantage. No league table data is available for either side, and with no previous meetings, the model's inputs are limited. The away side's recent form includes two losses, while the home side has a draw in one of their two home games.

The Poisson model gives Jagiellonia Białystok II an 81.4% chance of winning, with a draw at 12.4% and an away win at 6.2%. It projects a 2-0 scoreline, with 2-0 (12.4%), 3-0 (11.5%) and 1-0 (8.9%) as the most likely exact scores. The model expects around 3.44 total goals, with an 85.8% chance of at least two goals and a 45.3% chance that each side scores at least once. The home side is projected to win by two or more goals 61.3% of the time, and by exactly one goal 20% of the time. Confidence is medium.

The data points clearly toward a home victory, with the model's projected margin and win probability both heavily favoring Jagiellonia Białystok II. The main caveats are the small sample sizes — two home games for the hosts, four away games for the visitors — and the absence of any head-to-head or league table context. If the away side's recent attacking output carries over, the 45.3% probability of each side scoring suggests a tighter game than the projected scoreline implies, but the most likely outcome remains a home win.