Willem IIvsExcelsior

This round-five Eredivisie meeting pits Willem II, winless in three, against Excelsior, whom the model rates a 60% favorite. Excelsior's underlying table numbers come from the 2025-26 season, while Willem II's are from the current campaign, so the comparison should be read with that caveat.

Willem II sit 15th with one point from three games (0W 1D 2L), scoring 1.33 and conceding 3.33 per match. Their attack ranks 13th in the league and the defence 16th, and their last five overall reads DLLWD.

Excelsior's league record here is from 2025-26, when they finished 13th with 10W 8D 16L, averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. Their attack ranked 7th and defence 3rd that season, and their most recent five matches read WLWWW, averaging 3.4 goals scored per game.

There are no prior meetings between these clubs on record, so the head-to-head offers no basis for prediction. With such a small sample, the model leans on season data rather than historical rivalry.

Willem II's home record over their last four at this stadium is 1W 2D 1L, with 1.5 scored and 2 conceded per game — slightly better defensively than their overall 3.33 conceded per match. Excelsior's away form over 20 matches reads 8W 5D 7L, a 40% win rate that exceeds their overall 29.4%, with 1.85 scored per away game.

Rest is even: Willem II have six days since their last match and Excelsior seven. Schedule strength differs, though: Willem II's recent opponents average rank 7.7 (harder) versus 10.7 for Excelsior, a gap worth noting given the hosts' slow start.

The Poisson model projects a 1-2 Excelsior win with 60% probability and high confidence. Expected goals are 1.87 for Willem II and 2.95 for Excelsior, producing about 4.82 total goals; the chance of at least four goals is 70.8% and both sides scoring is 80.1%. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-2 (6.6%), 1-3 (6.5%), and 2-2 (6.2%). The largest share of probability sits with an away win by two or more (41.3%), with away by one at 18.7% and a draw at 16.8%.

The data collectively points to an Excelsior away win, underpinned by their superior recent scoring form and the model's 60% probability. The main caveats are Willem II's tiny three-game sample and the absence of head-to-head matches, so an early defensive improvement by the hosts could shift the projection. Still, on the numbers supplied, Excelsior are the model's clear favorites.