NEC Nijmegen1-3Feyenoord

Based on 2025-2026 data, this Eredivisie fixture pits last season's third-placed team against the runners-up. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a 44.5% win probability, with Feyenoord at 36.7% and the draw at 18.8%. Around 4.7 total goals are projected.

NEC finished last season with 59 points and the league's second-ranked attack. Their last five results, which open the new campaign, are WLLWW, averaging two goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match.

Feyenoord were runners-up with 65 points and the fourth-ranked defence. Their recent five results are DWDWW, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.

The clubs have met only twice on record. NEC have one win and one draw, outscoring Feyenoord 5-3 across those meetings. The sample is too small for strong conclusions.

Last season's splits show NEC winning 45% of their last 20 home games, just below their 47.1% overall win rate, with 2.05 goals scored and 1.70 conceded at home. Feyenoord won 50% of their last 20 away games, below their 55.9% overall, with 1.95 scored and 1.40 conceded on the road.

Both sides have had six or seven days between matches. NEC's recent fixture has come against a weaker opponent (average rank 15) than Feyenoord's (average rank 11), albeit from a very small sample. The two-meeting head-to-head also carries limited weight.

The model is highly confident. It projects NEC as the most likely winner at 44.5%, while the most probable exact scoreline is 2-2 at 6.9%. Total goals are expected around 4.74, with a 95% chance of two or more and an 82.1% chance both sides score. The largest winning-margin band is a NEC win by two or more at 27%.

The data points to a close, open game with a modest edge for NEC, based on their second-ranked attack and Feyenoord's slightly softer away record. The projection would be wrong if Feyenoord's road scoring improves sharply or if NEC's ninth-ranked defence concedes beyond last season's rate.