Wda ŚwiecievsNoteć Czarnków

This round-six fixture in Polish III liga Group II brings together two sides whose league table records are not available. The model gives Wda Świecie a 59.3% win probability against Noteć Czarnków, with a projected scoreline of 3-2. Both teams have averaged at least 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches, and the model projects a combined goal total around five.

Wda Świecie are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. In their last three home matches, they have two wins and one draw, scoring 2.33 per game and conceding 1.33. Their most recent outing was on 2026-08-23.

Noteć Czarnków have won three and lost two of their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. On the road in their last three away matches, they have two wins and one defeat, with 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their overall form sequence ends with two consecutive losses.

There are no prior meetings between these two sides on record. With a head-to-head sample of zero, the model cannot draw on any historical precedent for this fixture.

Wda Świecie’s home scoring average of 2.33 per game exceeds their recent overall average of 1.8, while their home concession rate of 1.33 is above their overall 1.0. Noteć Czarnków’s away scoring average of 2.33 also tops their recent overall 2.0, with a similar concession rate away (1.67 vs 1.6). Both sides have been more prolific in the venue splits covered.

The principal uncertainty is the absence of both league table data and any head-to-head record for this fixture. Rest is five days for Wda Świecie and six for Noteć Czarnków, a small gap. The model’s medium confidence rating reflects these gaps in the available information.

With medium confidence, the Poisson model assigns Wda Świecie a 59.3% win probability, Noteć Czarnków 24.3%, and the draw 16.4%. It projects a 3-2 scoreline, with expected goals of 3.11 for the home side and 2.05 for the away side. The model expects about 5.15 goals combined, with a 96.4% probability of at least two goals and an 83.1% probability that each side scores at least once. A home win by two or more goals is the leading margin band at 41.2%, followed by a home win by exactly one goal at 18.1%.

The data collectively points to a Wda Świecie home win, with the model favouring them in a match likely to contain multiple goals. The lack of head-to-head precedent and the small form samples keep confidence at medium. If Noteć’s two recent losses are not representative of their current form, the margin could be narrower than the projected 3-2.