Kotwica KórnikvsChemik Bydgoszcz

This Round 6 fixture in Polish III liga Group II brings together two sides with no league table data available, so the model relies heavily on recent form. The away side holds a 50.6% win probability, the clear favourite despite the projected 1-1 scoreline.

Kotwica Kórnik have lost four of their last five matches and drawn the other. At home over their last three fixtures they have two losses and one draw, averaging 1.33 goals scored but conceding three per game. Their overall recent average is 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded.

Chemik Bydgoszcz have one win, two draws and two losses in their last five, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Away from home across their last three matches they have one win, one draw and one loss, with averages of 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded.

There is no head-to-head record between these sides, and with no prior meetings the sample is too small to draw any conclusion about how this fixture tends to play out.

Kotwica Kórnik score more at home than their overall recent average (1.33 vs 0.8 per game) but also concede more (3.0 vs 2.4). Chemik Bydgoszcz's away scoring is slightly lower than their overall rate (1.0 vs 1.4) while their away concession rate is markedly better (1.33 vs 2.4).

Both teams have had six days of rest, so there is no scheduling edge. The lack of league table context and an absent head-to-head history keep the model's confidence at medium. The available data is therefore thinner than usual for a league preview.

The model assigns Chemik Bydgoszcz a 50.6% chance of winning, against 27.6% for Kotwica Kórnik and 21.8% for a draw. It projects 3.39 total goals, with an 85.2% probability of at least two goals and a 65.2% chance that both teams score. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, just ahead of 1-2 for the away side. The margin distribution is wide: an away win by two or more goals leads at 29.2%, but a draw and a one-goal away win are each around 21-22%.

The data points to an away win as the most probable outcome, though the projected scoreline suggests it could be tight. Kotwica Kórnik's home scoring rate keeps them in contention, but their defensive numbers are a concern. Should they concede at their usual rate, Chemik Bydgoszcz are well placed; a more disciplined home display would make the draw or a narrow home win likelier.