Šiauliai BvsMinija

Round 22 of the Lithuanian I Lyga sees Šiauliai B host Minija at Gytarių stadionas. The model assigns Minija a 93.6% win probability and projects a 0-3 scoreline, while Šiauliai B are given just a 0.9% chance of a home win.

No league table data is on record for Šiauliai B. Their last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game. In two home matches they have one win and one loss, scoring once and conceding twice per match.

Minija have won four of their last five, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. On the road they have three wins and one defeat from four games, with an average of 2.5 scored and only 0.25 conceded, though the sample is small.

There are no prior meetings on record between these sides, so historical head-to-head provides no guidance. The model is built purely on recent form and team-level statistics.

Šiauliai B's home numbers show fragility: two matches, one win and one loss, with an average of two goals conceded. Minija's away record is considerably stronger, conceding just once in four games. Those splits reinforce the model's away-leaning projection.

Minija enter on 14 days of rest compared to Šiauliai B's seven. The model expects 3.29 goals for the away side versus 0.2 for the home side. With no league table data and limited match samples, Minija's scoring and defensive rates are the clearest available signal.

The model's most likely outcome is an away win at 93.6%, with draw and home-win probabilities of 5.5% and 0.9%. It projects a 0-3 scoreline, with 0-2 and 0-4 also prominent among exact-score projections. Total goals are expected around 3.5, with an 86.3% chance of at least two and a 45.9% chance of four or more. The away side is projected to win by two or more goals in 79.8% of simulations.

The data points to a comfortable away victory, with Minija expected to dominate scoring and keep the home side off the board. The model gives only a 17.6% chance of both teams scoring, suggesting a likely Minija clean sheet. Confidence is medium due to the limited match data and absence of any head-to-head history.