DainavavsŽalgiris Vilnius B

Round 22 of the Lithuanian I Lyga brings Dainava and Žalgiris Vilnius B together for the first time on record. The model makes Žalgiris Vilnius B the most likely winner at 47.6%, with the draw at 29.8% and Dainava at 22.6%. With no historical meetings to draw on, the numbers point to a low-scoring away advantage.

Dainava come into this match unbeaten in their last five at home, with two wins and three draws, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their overall recent form of DDWDW matches that profile, showing a side that is difficult to beat but prone to sharing points.

Žalgiris Vilnius B have won four of their last five overall (WWWDW), scoring an average of 2.4 goals. Away from home they are unbeaten in three, with two wins and a draw, and a tighter defensive record of 0.67 goals conceded per game. They arrive as the higher-scoring side in this fixture.

No prior meetings between Dainava and Žalgiris Vilnius B are on record. The head-to-head sample is zero, so there is no historical pattern to lean on for either side.

Dainava's home form mirrors their overall recent numbers, with the same 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded average across the last five. Žalgiris Vilnius B's away splits are stingier than their overall recent form, conceding 0.67 per away game compared with 1.2 overall. That suggests the venue could reinforce the away side's defensive solidity.

Žalgiris Vilnius B face a short turnaround, with only three days since their last match, flagged as a congested schedule. Dainava have had a full six days of rest. With no prior meetings and no league table data on record, this is the most notable contextual difference between the sides.

The Poisson model projects a 0-1 result, with expected goals of 0.75 for Dainava and 1.23 for Žalgiris Vilnius B. The most likely outcome is an away win at 47.6%, and the most likely exact scoreline is 0-1 at 17%. Total goals are projected at about 1.98, with a 58.8% chance of at least two goals; the probability each side scores at least once is 37.3%. The winning-margin distribution is narrow: away by one is the most common margin at 26.1%, away by two or more at 21.5%, and a draw at 29.8%. Confidence is medium.

The most likely single outcome is an away win, but the model points to a tight contest: a draw or home win combined has a 52.4% probability, outweighing the 47.6% away-win share. The data suggests a low-scoring, narrow margin either way, with Žalgiris Vilnius B holding the edge in expected goals. The projection would be wrong if Dainava's home record holds and they take at least a point, which the model regards as a live possibility.