Shenzhen Peng CityvsShanghai Port

Shenzhen Peng City host Shanghai Port in Round 25 of the Chinese Super League at Shenzhen Stadium. The model makes the hosts clear favorites with a 68.4% win probability. The only prior meeting between these sides, in Shanghai, ended 1-1.

Shenzhen Peng City are unbeaten in their last two home matches, with one win and one draw, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Their overall recent form is mixed: DWLWL over the last five, with 1.6 goals scored and 2 conceded per game.

Shanghai Port have won both of their last two away games, averaging 3 scored and 2 conceded. Their last five overall read WDWWL, with a scoring average of 1.8 and a conceding average of 1.4.

The two sides have met only once, a 1-1 draw in Shanghai on 21 July 2026. That single sample is too small to support any head-to-head tendency.

At home, Shenzhen Peng City have taken four points from a possible six. Away from home, Shanghai Port have a perfect two-from-two record, though their away games have averaged five total goals compared to two for Shenzhen at home.

Rest days are nearly even: six for Shenzhen, five for Shanghai, with no short turnaround for either side. Shanghai's away matches have been high-scoring, averaging five goals, while Shenzhen's home matches have averaged two.

The model projects a 2-0 home win, with expected goals of 2.39 to 0.99 and a Shenzhen win probability of 68.4% (draw 17.7%, away 13.9%). The total-goals projection is 3.38, with an 85.1% chance of at least two goals and a 43.7% chance of four or more; each side scores at least once in 57% of scenarios. The highest single-scoreline probability is 2-0 at 9.7%, and the model favors a home margin of two-plus goals at 46% versus 22.4% for a one-goal win. Confidence is medium.

The weight of the data points to a home win, and the model's most likely outcome is indeed a Shenzhen victory. The sole head-to-head meeting was a draw, and both sides' relevant splits rest on just two games, which cautions against overconfidence. If Shanghai's away scoring efficiency carries over, a tighter contest is plausible.