Dalian YingbovsBeijing Guoan

Dalian Yingbo and Beijing Guoan meet for the first time on record in a Chinese Super League Round 25 fixture. Dalian Yingbo won their only home match in the sample, while Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last three away games. The goal model gives Dalian Yingbo a 60.1% win probability, the strongest single outcome in the projection.

Dalian Yingbo played one home match on record, winning it with a 1-0 scoreline. Their last five matches across all venues read WDLWD, with an average of one goal scored and one conceded per game. No league table position is available for the side.

Beijing Guoan have taken seven points from their last three away games, winning twice and drawing once, with an average of three goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Their last five overall results are DWWWW, scoring 3.2 goals per game while conceding 1.2. The away sample is small, but the recent run is strong.

There are no prior meetings between Dalian Yingbo and Beijing Guoan on record. With no head-to-head data to assess, the model relies entirely on each side's recent form and venue splits.

Dalian Yingbo's only home match in the sample ended in a win with a clean sheet, though that is a single fixture. Beijing Guoan have been more prolific on the road, averaging three goals in their last three away matches, while their overall recent average is 3.2. Conceding has been slightly higher away, at 1.33 per game versus 1.2 overall.

Dalian Yingbo have had five days of rest and Beijing Guoan six, with neither side facing a short turnaround. This is the first competitive meeting between the clubs, so the absence of head-to-head history adds uncertainty. The model flags medium confidence, reflecting the limited data available.

The Poisson model projects a Dalian Yingbo win as the most likely outcome, at 60.1%, with the draw at 34.7% and an away win at 5.2%. The expected scoreline is 1-0, and the most likely exact results are 1-0 (31.6%), 0-0 (29.8%), and 2-0 (16.8%). Total goals are projected at 1.21, with a 34.1% probability of two or more and a 12.3% probability of three or more; the model puts the probability of each side scoring at least once at 9.1%. Among single margins, a draw is most common at 34.7%, with a one-goal home win close behind at 34.2%.

The data points to a narrow Dalian Yingbo victory, with the model favoring the hosts despite Beijing Guoan's strong away form. The lack of head-to-head meetings and the small venue samples mean the projection rests on limited information, and the draw probability is substantial at 34.7%. A 1-0 scoreline is the single most likely exact result, but the model's medium confidence leaves room for alternative outcomes.