Shams Azar QazvinvsTractor

Round 5 of the Persian Gulf Pro League takes Shams Azar Qazvin to Sardar Azadegan Stadium against Tractor. Neither side has league-table data on record, but the model gives Tractor an 89.9% win probability and projects a 0-2 scoreline. Shams Azar have lost all three recorded home matches.

Shams Azar have won only one of their last five matches overall (WLDLL), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In their last three home fixtures they have lost all three, scoring 0.33 per game and conceding 2 per game.

Tractor are in strong form, with four wins in their last five (WWWWL), averaging 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. Their last two away matches have both ended in wins, with an average of 2 goals scored and 0 conceded.

The two sides have no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head sample is empty. No historical conclusions can be drawn from this fixture.

Shams Azar's home record in the sample is winless: 0W 0D 3L, conceding twice per game. Tractor's away record is perfect: 2W 0D 0L, scoring twice per game without conceding. The split strongly favors the visitors.

Both teams are on a four-day turnaround from matches on 28 August, so neither holds a rest advantage. The absence of any previous meetings adds uncertainty, as does the lack of league-table data. The small samples — three home games and two away games — warrant caution.

The Poisson model assigns Tractor an 89.9% win probability, with the draw at 8.9% and a home win at 1.2%. The projected score is 0-2, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-2 (21.5%), 0-3 (18.9%), and 0-1 (16.3%). Total goals are projected around 2.78, with a 76.6% chance of at least two goals and a 70.2% probability of the away side winning by two or more. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points clearly to a comfortable away victory, with Tractor the heavy favorite. The model's medium confidence, the small samples, and the lack of head-to-head history mean an upset cannot be ruled out. If Shams Azar's home form improves on recent numbers, the margin could be closer than projected.