Gol Gohar SirjanvsAluminium Arak

Round 5 brings Gol Gohar Sirjan and Aluminium Arak together with no prior meetings between the clubs on record. The model's most likely outcome is a draw at 54.7%, and the most probable exact scoreline is 0-0.

Gol Gohar Sirjan are unbeaten in their last three home matches, with two wins and a draw, conceding no goals and averaging 1.33 scored per game. Their last five overall results show two wins, two draws and a defeat (LWDWD), with averages of 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Aluminium Arak have won both of their last two away matches, scoring two goals per game and conceding 0.5. They are unbeaten in their last four matches overall with two wins and two draws (DWDW), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.75 conceded.

No prior encounters between these clubs are on record, so there is no head-to-head data to weigh. The fixture is effectively a clean slate, increasing the uncertainty around any projection.

Gol Gohar's home splits are markedly stronger than their overall numbers, averaging 1.33 scored and 0 conceded at Shahid Qasem Soleimani Stadium versus 0.8 and 0.4 across all matches. Aluminium Arak have also outperformed their overall averages on the road, though the away sample is only two games.

Both teams are playing on four days' rest, a congested turnaround. The absence of head-to-head history and the small sample sizes behind the form splits add uncertainty to the model's projections.

The model, with medium confidence, assigns a draw 54.7% probability, a home win 36.8%, and an away win 8.5%. The projected score is 0-0 (50.6% likelihood), expected total goals are 0.68, and the chance of two or more goals is just 14.9%. The winning-margin distribution is led by the draw, with a one-goal home win at 28% and a one-goal away win at 7.9%, while the probability of each side scoring at least once sits at 5.7%.

The data points to a low-scoring draw, with 0-0 the most probable exact scoreline. The projection would be overturned if either side's recent scoring or defensive form proves more durable than the model assumes, but the draw remains the strongest single outcome on these numbers.