Deportivo de A CoruñavsLevante

Deportivo de A Coruña begin this La Liga round nine fixture as the hosts with a league record of one win and two draws, having scored five goals while conceding three. Levante arrive with a solitary point from two matches, having conceded 12 goals across three games.

Deportivo have taken five points from their first three matches at home, averaging one goal scored per game while conceding slightly fewer at the Estadio Abanca-Riazor. Their recent form comprises one win and two losses over their last five outings.

Levante have managed only a single point from three league games on the road, scoring less than a goal per match away from home while conceding an average of 1.75. Their last five results show a win, a loss, and two draws.

Only two meetings are on record. Levante have won both of them, the most recent a 2-1 victory away from home in October 2024. The combined goals per meeting in this sample is three.

The home side's defensive figures are better at the Riazor than their season average, while the away side's average of 1.75 conceded per away game exceeds their season total.

Levante have a four-day turnaround between matches, while Deportivo face five days of rest. The model estimates Levante's strength based on their 2025-2026 adjusted performance.

A Poisson model projects a win probability of 69.2% for the hosts, with the most likely individual scoreline a 2-0 victory. The combined goals expected is 3.16, and the probability of at least two goals is 82.4%.

The data supports a high-probability home victory with a focus on a low-scoring match. The model identifies a 2-0 home win as the most probable exact outcome.