PEC ZwollevsCambuur

PEC Zwolle host Cambuur at the MAC³PARK Stadion in round 8 of the Eredivisie, with no prior meetings between the clubs on record. Cambuur's figures come from the current campaign, where four matches have yielded no points, four goals scored and 16 conceded; Zwolle's benchmark is last season's 15th-place finish and minus-27 goal difference. The Poisson model gives Zwolle an 84.1% win probability.

Zwolle finished 15th in 2025-2026 on 37 points, scoring 44 and conceding 71 — 1.29 scored and 2.09 conceded per game, with the attack ranked 13th and the defence 17th of 18. Their last five matches read LLDLW at 1.0 scored and 3.0 conceded per game. At home across their last 20 the record is 8W 4D 8L, with 1.1 scored and 1.65 conceded per game.

Cambuur are 18th with four defeats from four, four goals scored and 16 conceded — 1.0 scored and 4.0 conceded per game. Their last four away matches read 0W 2D 2L at 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded, noticeably less severe than the overall figures. A wider five-match sample reads DWDLL at 1.8 scored and 2.4 conceded.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so there is no head-to-head sample to lean on at all. The read on this fixture rests entirely on each side's own figures and the model output.

Zwolle's home split is their better setting: a 40% win rate over their last 20 at home against 26.5% overall, and 1.65 conceded per home game against 2.09 across all matches. Cambuur's away record shows no wins in four, but 2.25 conceded per away game sits well below their 4.0 league average.

Both sides last played in mid-September, 23 days ago for Zwolle and 22 for Cambuur, so neither has played competitively in over three weeks. Both have faced demanding schedules, with average opponent ranks of 6.4 and 5.8 across their recent fixtures. Cambuur's league sample is four matches and Zwolle's figures are a season old, which limits how firmly either can be projected.

The model puts Zwolle's win probability at 84.1%, the draw at 8.6% and Cambuur at 7.2%, at high confidence. Its projected scoreline is 4-1, from expected values of 4.4 and 1.47; the most likely exact scores are 4-1 (6.7%), 3-1 (6.1%) and 5-1 (5.9%). Total goals project to about 5.87, with an 83% probability of four or more and a 76% chance each side scores at least once. A home margin of two or more accounts for 70.8% of the distribution, against 13.4% for a single-goal home win.

The data points to a Zwolle win and probably a comfortable one, given that 70.8% of the distribution sits at a two-goal margin or better. The caveat is Cambuur's away record, which shows 2.25 conceded per game rather than the 4.0 they have shipped per league match; if their away numbers travel better than their league ones, the margin narrows. The model still leaves roughly a one-in-six chance of a draw or an away win.