FeyenoordvsAZ Alkmaar

Round 8 of the Eredivisie brings AZ Alkmaar to Stadion Feyenoord, with both clubs' underlying figures drawn from the 2025-26 campaign because the current-season table is still too thin to read. The model's headline number is a 60.7% home win probability, clear of the 17.9% draw and 21.4% away figures, and it rates its confidence as high. Feyenoord's second-place finish last term against AZ's seventh is the main structural gap between the sides.

Feyenoord finished 2025-26 second on 65 points from 34 games, scoring 70 and conceding 44 — 2.06 goals per game at the attacking end and 1.29 at the defensive end, ranking third and fourth respectively of 18. Their closing table form read WDWWD. Across the last five matches they averaged 3.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, a run containing one defeat.

AZ Alkmaar ended 2025-26 seventh on 52 points with a 14W 10D 10L record, scoring 58 and conceding 51, or 1.71 and 1.5 per game. Their attack ranked sixth in the division and their defence seventh. The last five matches produced WDWWW at 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Only two meetings are on record, and both finished level: 3-3 in Alkmaar in September 2025 and 1-1 in Rotterdam in May 2026. That is eight goals across the two games, with one of them producing two or fewer. Two draws is too small a sample to lean on in either direction.

Feyenoord's last 20 home matches yielded 12W 5D 3L, averaging 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded for a 60% win rate, slightly above their 55.9% overall figure though with a higher concession rate than their season average. AZ's last 20 away games read 9W 3D 8L at 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, a 45% win rate against 41.2% across all venues.

Both sides last played on 20 September, so each comes in with a 20-day gap since its previous fixture. Feyenoord's three most recent opponents averaged a rank of 8, while AZ's four averaged 11.3 — a milder slate by that measure. Neither side is flagged as newly promoted, so both projections rest on established top-flight data.

The Poisson model projects a 2-1 scoreline from expected values of 2.63 for Feyenoord and 1.55 for AZ, and expects roughly 4.18 goals in total. It puts a 92.1% probability on two or more goals and 78.7% on three or more, with a 73.1% chance each side scores at least once. The margin distribution tilts to a decisive home result: 40.5% for Feyenoord by two or more against 20.2% by exactly one.

The data collectively points to a Feyenoord win — the stronger 2025-26 profile, the better home split and a model output above 60%. AZ's counterweight is their own last five, four wins and a draw, and an away record with nine wins from 20. What would undercut the projection is exactly that away form, along with the fact that both recorded meetings finished level.