Nassaji MazandaranvsShams Azar Qazvin

In a Round 4 encounter, Nassaji Mazandaran host Shams Azar Qazvin with both sides yet to find consistent form. The model assigns the visitors a 49.5% win probability, although a 0-0 draw is the single most likely scoreline.

Nassaji have lost both home matches so far, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Their last five outings produced one win, one draw, and three losses, with the most recent match ending on 23 August.

Shams Azar's only away match this season ended in a draw. Their recent four games include three losses, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded.

No prior meetings are on record, so head-to-head data offers no guidance for this fixture.

Nassaji's two home games have both been losses, while Shams Azar's single away trip yielded a draw. Expected goals reflect that pattern: 0.4 for the hosts, 0.99 for the visitors.

Both teams have had five days of rest since their last match, so fatigue is not a differentiating factor. With no head-to-head history and limited form data, the model's medium confidence reflects the uncertainty.

The model projects a low-scoring match, with total goals around 1.39. It gives Shams Azar a 49.5% chance of winning, 35.8% for a draw, and 14.6% for Nassaji. The most likely exact scorelines are 0-0 (25%) and 0-1 (24.7%). Away by one goal carries a 29.9% probability, and away by two or more 19.6%.

The data points to a tight match with the visitors slightly favored. Nassaji will need to reverse their early home struggles to challenge that projection, and the model's medium confidence leaves room for deviation.