Aluminium ArakvsKheybar Khorramabad

Round 4 of the Persian Gulf Pro League sees Aluminium Arak host Kheybar Khorramabad at Imam Khomeini Stadium. No league table data is available for either side, but the early splits are identical in one respect: both played one home or away match and drew. The Poisson model makes a draw the clear favorite at 75.8%.

Aluminium Arak are unbeaten in their last three matches, with two wins and a draw in that stretch, scoring 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.33. Their only home fixture so far ended goalless, reflecting a side that has kept things tight at the back.

Kheybar Khorramabad are winless across their last four outings, with two draws and two losses, averaging one goal scored and 1.75 conceded. Their one away match produced a 1-1 draw, and they face a short turnaround of four days after their latest game.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides, so the head-to-head offers no historical basis for prediction. The sample is effectively zero.

At Imam Khomeini Stadium, Aluminium Arak played once and drew 0-0. Kheybar Khorramabad's sole away trip also ended level, at 1-1, meaning both teams have shown a tendency to share the points in these early splits.

The away side are on a congested schedule with four days of rest compared to the home side's five, a minor disadvantage. Additionally, neither team has an established record against the other, and the small sample of one home and one away match limits the weight that can be placed on venue splits.

The model assigns a 75.8% probability to a draw, with the 0-0 scoreline alone accounting for 74.1% of outcomes. It projects roughly 0.3 combined goals, giving a 3.7% chance of two or more goals and a 1.9% chance both teams score. Winning margins are heavily skewed away from decisive results: a one-goal win for either side is rated at 11.2% each, while margins of two or more are 0.9% each for a combined 1.8%.

Every signal points to a goalless draw as the most plausible result, consistent with both teams' early splits and the model's expectation. A departure from that would require either attack to produce at a rate far above what their current form suggests, but with such small sample sizes, the projection carries only medium confidence.