Flora Tallinn U21vsTallinna Kalev

This is a Round 26 Esiliiga fixture between Flora Tallinn U21 and Tallinna Kalev at A. Le Coq Arena Lilleküla harjutusväljak. Neither side has a league table record available in the data, so recent form and the model output carry the preview. The model makes it exceptionally tight, with Flora's win probability at 41.3% and Kalev's at 38.4%.

Flora enter off a mixed last five: DWLWL, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. Over their last three home games they have won two, lost one, and scored twice per game, conceding 1.33. Their home win rate in that sample is 66.7%.

Tallinna Kalev's last five reads LWWDW, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded. In the last three away matches, they have also won two and lost one, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1.33 per game, a 66.7% win rate.

No prior meetings between these two sides are on record, so there is no head-to-head history to lean on. The sample is too small to draw any historical conclusion.

When the data is split by venue, both teams improve in attack. Flora average 2 goals per game at home versus 1.2 across their last five overall, while Kalev average 2.33 away versus 1.6 overall. Both concede at the same 1.33 rate in these splits.

Both sides come into the match on five days of rest, so neither has a freshness advantage. The absence of any prior meetings adds uncertainty. The model's medium confidence reflects that, and it projects a high-scoring game with about 4.17 combined goals.

The model gives Flora a 41.3% chance to win, Kalev 38.4%, and a draw 20.2%. While the most likely exact scoreline is 2-2 (7.3%), the most likely outcome is a home win, with 23.4% probability of winning by two or more. The projected total is 4.17 goals, and the chances of at least two goals and both sides scoring are 92% and 76.6% respectively.

The data points to a close, high-scoring contest in which the home side holds a modest edge. The model's projected 2-2 draw highlights how evenly matched these teams are, but the outcome probabilities favor Flora. That projection would be wrong if either side's recent scoring rates prove unrepresentative, or if the lack of head-to-head history hides a clear pattern.