FC TallinnvsNõmme Kalju U21

Round 26 of the Estonian Esiliiga sees FC Tallinn host Nõmme Kalju U21 at Lasnamäe kunstmurustaadion. Neither side has league table data available, but the model gives the hosts a 68.4% win probability. The away side have lost five straight matches heading into this one.

FC Tallinn's last five matches produced one win, two draws, and two losses, with the most recent game a defeat. At home over their last three, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded.

Nõmme Kalju U21 have lost all five of their most recent matches, scoring 0.6 goals per game while conceding 3.2. Away from home in their last two, they have lost both without scoring, conceding 2.5 per game.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. The head-to-head therefore provides no indication of how this fixture tends to play out.

FC Tallinn average 0.67 goals per game at home over their last three, slightly below their recent overall average of 0.8. Nõmme Kalju U21 have averaged zero goals in their last two away matches, well below their overall recent 0.6.

Both sides have had six days of rest, so there is no scheduling edge. The decisive factor in the data is the away side's form: five consecutive losses and no goals in their last two away games. The model's medium confidence also signals that the projected home win, while clear, is not a certainty.

The Poisson model gives FC Tallinn a 68.4% win probability, with a draw at 27.6% and an away win at 4.1%. The projected score is 1-0, and the most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (30.3%), 0-0 (22.8%), and 2-0 (20.1%). Combined expected goals are about 1.5, and the model puts a 43.5% probability on two or more goals being scored. The home side are projected to win by two or more goals 35% of the time and by one goal 33.4% of the time.

The numbers point squarely to a home win, backed by the away side's poor run and lack of away goals. A draw is the most credible alternative, and the model assigns it nearly a one-in-four chance. If Nõmme Kalju U21 were to end their away scoring drought, the projection would shift, but the data as it stands favors the hosts.