Fakel VoronezhvsKrasnodar

This Russia Cup third-round tie sees Fakel Voronezh host Krasnodar at the Fakel Stadium, with both sides coming into the match on three days' rest. The model's central projection is a draw, at 59.2%, with Krasnodar (31.5%) the clear second-favorite and Fakel (9.3%) the outsider. The projected scoreline is 0-0.

Fakel are winless in their last five matches (LDLLD), averaging 0.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home over their last four they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, scoring no goals on average and conceding 0.5 per game. Their last match was on 2026-08-29, a short turnaround.

Krasnodar have won their last five matches (WWWWW), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. Away from home they have a perfect 3-0 record in their last three, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded. They also last played on 2026-08-29, giving them the same three-day rest period.

The two sides have met just once on record: Krasnodar beat Fakel 3-2 on 2026-08-02. That single meeting produced five goals, but a one-match sample is too small to draw meaningful conclusions about how this fixture tends to play out.

Fakel's home numbers suggest a tighter defensive shape than their overall form: they concede 0.5 per home game versus 0.8 overall, though they score at an even lower rate (0.0 vs 0.2). Krasnodar's away numbers are broadly consistent with their overall streak: 1.33 goals scored away versus 1.2 overall, with 0.33 conceded away versus 0.2 overall.

Both teams have had only three days of rest, flagging a congested schedule. Krasnodar enter on a five-match winning streak, while Fakel have not won in five. The head-to-head sample is just one game, so historical form carries little weight here. No league table data is available for either side, so the preview rests entirely on recent results and the model.

The Poisson model, at medium confidence, projects a 0-0 scoreline as the most likely exact result, with a 59.2% probability of a draw. Expected total goals are about 0.59, and the chance of two or more goals is just 11.8%. Winning margins are clustered around a draw, with a one-goal away win at 25.2% and a one-goal home win at 8.6%; the probability of each side scoring at least once is only 5%.

The data points to a low-scoring contest with the draw as the most probable single outcome. If the match is decided, Krasnodar's recent form and the lone head-to-head win make them the more likely victor, with a one-goal away win the next most common result. That projection would be overturned if the model's goal expectation is too low and the game produces multiple goals, which the model estimates at an 11.8% chance.