Akron TolyattivsLokomotiv Moscow

This Russia Cup third-round tie sees Akron Tolyatti host Lokomotiv Moscow at Solidarnost Samara Arena. Neither side arrives in encouraging form, but the model gives the visitors a commanding 66.8% win probability. Akron's recent home numbers are particularly alarming.

No league table data is available for Akron Tolyatti this season. Their last five matches produced one win, three draws and one defeat, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. At home, their last five outings brought zero wins, one draw and four losses, conceding 3.2 goals per game.

Lokomotiv Moscow also have no league table data available. Their recent form shows three defeats followed by two draws in the last five, averaging 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Away from home, they have gone winless in their last four, with one draw and three losses.

The two sides have met only once before, on 8 August 2026, when the match finished 0-0. With a single sample, the head-to-head offers little predictive value.

Akron's home split is stark: they have not won in five matches at Solidarnost Samara Arena, scoring 0.6 and conceding 3.2 per game. Lokomotiv's away form is also poor, with no wins in four matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.75 per game. Both teams' defensive records at these venues stand out, though Akron's is the more severe.

Both sides enter on short rest: Akron four days after their last match, Lokomotiv three. Both are flagged for congested schedules. No league table data is available for either side, so this cup tie is the only context.

The Poisson model gives Lokomotiv Moscow a 66.8% chance of winning, against 13.7% for Akron and 19.5% for a draw. The projected score is 0-2, with the 0-2 scoreline carrying the highest single probability at 11.8%. The model projects about 2.94 total goals, with at least two goals in 79.2% of simulations and both teams scoring in 49.6%. An away win by two or more is projected at 42.6%, while an away win by exactly one is 24.2%.

The data points clearly to a Lokomotiv Moscow win, with the visitors favored across every major projection. The model's confidence is medium, and the single prior meeting was a goalless draw, so the away win is the most likely outcome but not a certainty. A draw or an Akron win would contradict the model, and those outcomes together carry a 33.2% probability.