ExcelsiorvsGroningen

Excelsior host Groningen in round eight of the Eredivisie. The table figures behind this preview come from the 2025-2026 season, because the current campaign has too few matches to be meaningful. Last season Excelsior finished 13th on 38 points; Groningen were ninth on 48. The model leans away, giving Groningen 43.7%, the draw 23.7% and Excelsior 32.6%.

Excelsior's 2025-2026 record was 10W 8D 16L, with 43 goals scored and 56 conceded across 34 games — 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded per match. Their attack ranked 14th of 18 in the division and their defence 13th. The last five league matches read DLDWW, at 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

Groningen's ninth place came with a positive goal difference: 49 scored and 45 conceded over 34 matches, or 1.44 and 1.32 per game. Their defence ranked fifth of 18, though the attack sat 10th. The most recent five read WDDLL, averaging 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Only two meetings are on record, which is too small a sample to lean on. Each side has won once: Groningen 2-3 Excelsior on 2026-05-02, and Excelsior 0-2 Groningen on 2025-12-05. Seven goals were scored across the two, and one of the two finished with two goals or fewer.

Excelsior's home record over the last 20 is 6W 3D 11L, with 1.2 scored and 1.35 conceded per game — a lower scoring rate and a tighter defence than their overall 1.65 conceded. Groningen's away split over 20 is 8W 3D 9L, at 1.35 scored and 1.6 conceded, slightly more porous than their overall 1.32.

Both sides come off extended gaps: 22 days for Excelsior since 2026-09-19, 23 for Groningen since 2026-09-18. Excelsior's recent opposition averaged a rank of 6, a tougher slate than Groningen's 8.6. The model rates its own confidence high, but every rate here is drawn from last season's completed campaign, so how those figures carry into this one is the open question.

The Poisson model gives Groningen 43.7% to win, the draw 23.7% and Excelsior 32.6%. Its projected score is 1-1, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.67, and 1-1 is also the most likely individual scoreline at 10.8%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 7.6%. Combined goals project to about 3.09, with a 59.6% chance of three or more. The margin distribution is spread thin — away by one 21%, away by two or more 22.7%.

The model settles on a Groningen win as the most likely result, though at 43.7% it is a lean rather than a firm one, with draws and one-goal margins taking most of the remainder. Excelsior's home defence, 1.35 conceded per game, is better than their overall 1.65, and a home side holding that level is the clearest route to this projection missing.