Eintracht FrankfurtvsKöln

Round 6 sends Köln to Deutsche Bank Park, with last season's table still the reference point: Frankfurt finished 8th on 44 points, Köln 14th on 32. The Poisson model leans firmly towards the hosts at a 56.6% win probability. Both clubs conceded more than they scored across 34 matches in 2025-26, which shapes much of what follows.

Frankfurt's 2025-26 profile was mid-table going forward and porous at the back: 61 scored, 65 conceded, an attack ranked 7th of 18 and a defence ranked 16th. Their last five matches averaged 3.2 goals conceded. At home across the last 20 they have 7W 5D 8L, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.75 per game.

Köln's season ended 7W 11D 16L with 49 scored and 63 conceded, and a defence ranked 15th of 18. The away record is the weaker half of that: 3W 7D 10L in the last 20 on the road, a 15% win rate, 1.5 scored and 2 conceded per game. Their last five matches average 1.6 scored and 2 conceded.

Only two meetings are on record, too small a sample to lean on. Frankfurt hold 1W 1D 0L in those fixtures, with the goals 6-5 in their favour — 11 across the two games, an average of 5.5. Neither meeting finished with two or fewer total goals.

Frankfurt's home split runs lower-scoring than their overall season: 1.4 goals per game at Deutsche Bank Park against 1.79 across all 34 matches, and 1.75 conceded at home versus 1.91 overall. Köln travel worse than they play generally — 1.5 scored and 2 conceded away against 1.44 and 1.85 overall, with a win rate falling from 20.6% to 15%.

The schedule data is close but not identical: Frankfurt's last five fixtures came against opponents averaging rank 8, Köln's against an average of 9.8. Rest is near-equal, six days for the hosts and five for the visitors. Frankfurt's recent run reads LDWLD and Köln's WLDLW, so neither arrives on a settled sequence.

The model rates its confidence high. It gives Frankfurt 56.6%, the draw 17.6% and Köln 25.9%, with a projected score of 2-1 built on expected values of 2.82 and 1.94. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-1 (6.6%), 2-2 (6.4%) and 3-1 (6.2%). It projects 4.76 goals combined, with an 85.3% chance of three or more and an 80.5% chance each side scores at least once.

Taken together — last season's table, the home and away splits, and the model output — the weight sits with Frankfurt, and the goal expectation sits high. The margin distribution is not one-sided: home by two or more covers 37.8%, but a one-goal home win, the draw and the away outcomes together account for more than half. Köln's away record includes seven draws from 20, and a repeat of April's 2-2 would prove the projection wrong.