Bayern MunichvsStuttgart

Bayern Munich and Stuttgart open the 2026-27 Bundesliga season at the Allianz Arena. The figures below come from the 2025-26 campaign, when Bayern won the league with 89 points and Stuttgart finished fourth with 62. The model makes the hosts heavy favorites.

Bayern's title-winning season saw them average 3.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game, with the division's best attack and second-best defence. Their recent table form reads WWDWW, and they have won 15 of their last 20 home league matches, scoring 3.4 per game.

Stuttgart's fourth-place finish came with 18 wins in 34 games and a 2.09 goals-per-game average. Their away record over the last 20 matches is eight wins, five draws and seven defeats, conceding 1.75 goals per game while scoring 2.65.

Bayern have won all four recorded meetings, outscoring Stuttgart 16-3. Each of those matches saw at least three goals, with an average of 4.75 per game.

Bayern's home win rate is 75% across their last 20, and their home scoring average is 3.4. Stuttgart's away win rate is 40%, and their away defence conceded 1.75 per game. The contrast gives the hosts a clear edge.

Both sides are coming off similar rest periods — Bayern six days since their last match, Stuttgart seven. The main caveat is that this is the opening weekend, so all performance data is from the previous season. That makes projections a little less certain than usual, despite the model's high confidence.

The model gives Bayern an 83% win probability, with 9% for the draw and 8% for Stuttgart, and rates its confidence as high. It projects a 4-1 scoreline, with expected goals of 4.4 to 1.56 and about six goals in total. The most likely exact scoreline is 4-1, at 6.5%. There is a 69.4% chance of a home win by two or more goals, and a 78% probability that each side scores at least once.

The data aligns on a clear Bayern victory: the head-to-head sweep, their dominant home form, and the model's 83% probability all point the same way. The projected margin is comfortable. The main risk to that projection is that it relies on last season's data, and the opening round can produce surprises, but the model's high confidence suggests that risk is small.