One moment decides it: Leeds edge Forest with a late set-piece strike

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United was the kind of nervy, cagey opener that felt destined to turn on one moment. The xG bears it out — 0.65 to 0.49, almost nothing between them — and 12 shots to 11. For 88 minutes it was a stalemate of half-chances and hard fouls. Then it cracked.

Leeds thought they had it on 25 minutes when Harry Wilson found the net, only for the flag to rule it out for offside. In a game this fine, a disallowed goal reshapes everything — it kept Forest level and kept the tension wound tight, both sides trading yellow cards and territory without landing a blow.

With the draw looking set, Anton Stach struck on 88 minutes to win it for the visitors — the newly promoted side’s reward for staying in the fight on the road. There was barely time for Forest to respond, and the substitutions that followed could not conjure an equaliser out of a game that had offered so few clear chances.

Leeds leave with three points their performance did not dominate but their resilience earned; away days like this are how promoted sides survive. Forest will feel they did enough not to lose — and that is exactly the frustration of a match settled by the only real moment either team produced.