1.99 xG, one goal: Juventus win ugly at Frosinone

Juventus beat Frosinone 1-0 having done almost everything but score freely: 63% possession, 20 shots, 12 corners and 1.99 expected goals to the hosts’ 0.45. On the underlying numbers this should have been comfortable. On the scoreboard it stayed a nervy one-goal game to the final whistle — a reminder that dominance and ruthlessness are different things.

The breakthrough fit the pattern of the night: not a flowing move but a dead ball. Bremer headed home on 22 minutes from a Francisco Conceição delivery — fitting for a game in which Juventus won 12 corners and leaned on their aerial and second-phase threat to prise open a packed Frosinone block.

That the game stayed in the balance owed much to the Frosinone goalkeeper, who made four saves and repeatedly denied a Juventus side that kept coming. With 0.45 xG the hosts were never likely to score, but they defended their box with numbers and rode their luck on the profligacy at the other end.

Juventus will take the clean sheet and three points and shrug at the wastefulness — winning without your best final ball is a useful habit. But 1.99 xG returning a single goal is the sort of profligacy that costs points against sharper opponents. The win was deserved; the margin should have been bigger.